Designing the Future - President's Column
by Mike Levin
Original source: The Blitter, Journal of the Philadelphia Amiga
Users' Group. 2/92

Life is a constant learning process. I am often amazed at how much
and from whom I am learning. The stage in my life where I had the
luxury of making learning a full-time occupation is just about over.

In these last several months of school, I have the opportunity to
take electives outside my area of study (graphic design). In one
term, I have experienced film making, video production, advertising,
and business ethics. The workload was immense, but in those three
months, I have learned whole new vocabularies. In becoming media
literate, I am starting to see how everything is connected and how
perception can be more powerful than reality.

Further, I am finally beginning to appreciate the difficult-to-
articulate reasons why I switched from engineering (which I still
perceive to be possibly the most worthwhile of occupations) to
graphic design (which is basically applied art). Engineers deal in
reality. Designers deal in perception. It is very likely that I will
be able to affect the most good by designing perceptions.

This is something an Amiga user can surely relate to. We reap the
benefits of reality while being victims to perception. Reality gives
us possibly the greatest tool one can get for the money; while
perception makes us lower-class computer owners. This perception
scares away developers, harms sales, and jeopardizes the viability of
the platform. Therefore, no matter how exceptional the reality,
perception dictates its potential good.

Therein lies the value of the designer. The designer organizes
information to present a rendition of reality in order to achieve the
desired effect. The designer must understand trends and attitudes
while still having a more-than-solid foundation in reality. Where
engineers build tangible solutions to problems, designers build
beliefs. These beliefs can make or break the reality of the solution.
If you can't communicate the value (and very existence) of the
solution, then it might as well not exist.

One of my favorite instructors once expressed the opinion that a good
designer, once having a basic command over the tools, can design in
almost any media. This includes among others: print, film, video,
writing, and music. I asked myself: "If this is true... then what is
the most worthwhile and rewarding medium for design?" 

What is the most difficult thing to imagine designing? The results of
designing in this medium are often quite invisible to all but the
designers. The challenge is so great that it is nearly unapproachable
by a single person. The variables are so immense that neither a
story-board or flow-chart could lay out all the elements. I speak of
designing the future.

There is a word for people who attempt to design the future. They are
called visionaries. Their vision is the outline of their design.
Visionaries
who succeed win a place in history. Visionaries
who fail are labeled fools and are soon forgotten. Designing the future is the process of pro-
actively making that vision come about. Although I use the word designer, I speak of almost any
profession where your livelihood relies on the manipulation of perception. This includes public
relations, advertising, and politics.

Designing the future might seem like the stuff of science fiction. In fact, renowned writer, Isacc
Asimov presents one scenario of designing the future in his "Foundation" series with the concept of
"psychohistory." Author, Michael Chrichton also explores the paradoxical effect of chaos theory on
attempts to control the future in some of his new novels. 

But there are also examples grounded in history. The Constitutional Convention is an example of
men conspiring to shape the future of a nation. The representatives from each state were the
craftsmen. Hamilton and the writers of the Virginia Plan were the primary designers.

One might say that efforts of that sort were so successful because they were in times of great
change and people were waiting and looking for such actions. But, the meeting that led to the
Constitutional Convention was intended only to approve Briton's colonial plans. The fathers of our
country saw the opportunity and stepped in to provide the design. They did--to a great extent--
design the future.

I believe that we are engaged in a new time of great change which will require even more
sophisticated levels of designing. The cause of the changes--instead of a new world in which to
settle--is technology and computers. They promise to open new doors to mankind. Computers are
the way to put the tools for creativity, learning, building, and communication into the hands of
every individual with the need. Or, computers can remain an expensive, elitist, limited, and
misguided toys for only the initiated.

The people to form the visionary designs are the leaders of companies which control the
technologies vital to the future. One might think that this means IBM, Intel, or Apple. Another line
of thinking would lead you to Sony, Nintendo, or NEC. Most of these companies do, in fact, have a
vision of the future. Some accounts have Sony planning ahead some 250 years.

One must closely look at the objectives of their plans. Beyond corporate profit, what are the
objectives? Is it really to better the quality of living of their customers, or is it to dominate a
market to the point that they no longer even need to respond to their customers? I fear the later
as the more likely scenario. Apple ingeniously capitalized on this fear in their 1984 introduction of
the Macintosh computer. Jobs had a pretty good vision. Sculley doesn't. My plans are to help see
that the former scenario actually happens.

I bet you can guess which company I believe has the resources and product to become the George
Washington of today's new world of technology. The company must have superior products at a fair
price. The company must be willing to deal with the world market. The company must have insight,
innovation, and motivation. It must not excessively rely on the manufacturers of component parts.
The company must be able to surmount massive opposition. The company must be able to deliver
products that fit into the lives of people. And the company must have a worthwhile vision involving
the betterment of education and communication. 

The leaders of the company must have the good of it's customers at heart and have keen strategic
ability. That company can design the future. That company can be Commodore. And just like George
Washington, its going to take a hell of a lot of persuasion to get Commodore to assume this role.

What I have presented above is more-or-less a hypothesis. The only missing element to turn the
hypothesis into a reality is an intentional strategic effort by Commodore to design the future. If
this were being done, it would be felt as a positive, motivational attitude permeating all the way
through the company and out to the customers and beyond.

How do you feel? What are your perceptions? Is it a worthwhile endeavour to base a vision of the
future on Commodore product (current and future), or should Commodore just be allowed to fizzle
out? 

I have made my prediction at the 1992 Commodore shareholders' meeting in Nassau. I stated my
belief that if we don't change the current situation, then Commodore will be out of business within
the next 5 years. There was mention of the next generation Amiga being on the way. But, changing
the situation doesn't necessarily mean dramatic change in product, but rather, the all-important
change in perception brought about by designers (like myself). Here I am. Ready to go.

Please write me with your opinions and feedback. It is necessary. One must listen and learn; be
ready to step back and re-evaluate. If you write me, there is a good chance that it can affect
change. It is not certain that I will end up with Commodore. I am certainly not putting all my eggs
in one basket. I hope that Commodore has the good sense to do the same.

attn: Mike Levin
Philadelphia Amiga Users' Group
PO Box 21186
Philadelphia, PA 19154-0386

Voice: 215-487-0440

E-Mail to Mike Levin at Philadelphia Amiga Users' Group Electronic Bulletin Board: 215-551-1485,
215-551-6113, 215-551-1120, 215-551-1121.